Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. Not a bad streak. 6. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. In communities . In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Website Updates Paused Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Ron Elving . But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Still, the state's worth watching. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Really stop reading. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. 4. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. University of New Hampshire . Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. 12. Outstanding. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. 2016 Election (1135) To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images (Go to the bottom of the page. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Yes, another Hillsborough! The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. In their . From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. TIP: It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Sumter County, . (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. It's the wrong question. (i.e. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. What, if anything, did we miss? History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. How could 16 out of 17 bellwether counties predict a Trump win - Quora Will That Last?]. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008.