cookies. Tony Blair Institute, trading as Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, is a company limited by guarantee registered in England and Wales (registered company number: 10505963) whose registered office is One Bartholomew Close, London, EC1A 7BL. Finally, it is crucial to ensure a place where data and analysis can be stored and updated to ease access for champions and leaders, as the need arises. Agricultural transformation needs to be factored in to the political cycle of the head of state, and it may pick up speed when there is a longer political horizon. Boettiger, Denis and Sanghvi, “Successful agricultural transformations”. Rather, it means broadening the scope and playing a long game by extending the time horizon for a real elite vision to take hold. Revolutions in agriculture have kick-started those in industry and driven development in Europe, North America, South America and Asia. Among them are technocrats and bureaucrats in the civil service, members of parliament, businesspeople with vested interests, academia and civil-society organisations. It began when hunter-gatherer groups in Mesopotamia and in the New World started to settle in single places instead of continuously roaming in search of food. Flip the odds. African leaders are increasingly becoming the primary voices in pushing for transformational change. Doing so makes it hard to stay focused and targeted, because leaders get drawn into diverse issues they cannot ignore. Proponents of agricultural transformation need to build an ecosystem of support to leaders who are part of the local system, particularly those in government. He drove the establishment of the Morocco Green Plan, pushing away resistance. In 2008 an external consultant guided the introduction of SPIUs as a pilot project in a few ministries, among them the Ministry of Agriculture. Shiferaw, “Productive Capacity and Economic Growth in Ethiopia”. Building the management capacity of economically competitive cooperatives and farms is also important. Although Transformation was only formed in 2017, the firm plans to launch a global investment syndicate to address global agricultural issues. Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett and Michael Woolcock, “Escaping capability traps through problem driven iterative adaptation”, Center for International Development, Harvard University, 2012, https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/publications/faculty-working-papers/escaping-capability-traps-through-problem-driven-iterative-adaptation-pdia. Inclusive agricultural transformation is productivity-led growth in the smallholder sector that spurs rural sector economic growth and delivers broad and accelerated impacts favoring the poor, especially women. “Agriculture Development Agency”, Government of Morocco, accessed October 2018, http://www.ada.gov.ma/. Kenya may have less of a need to focus its strategy at this level, instead helping medium-sized and large businesses to innovate and grow, while still encouraging smaller ones to flourish. Countries that had these in place did not always transform, but without one or more of these components, there are doubts as to whether even strong agricultural transformation policies and investments will achieve their goals. Kartik Akileswaran, Antoine Huss, Dan Hymowitz and Jonathan Said, The Jobs Gap: How to Make Inclusive Growth Work in Africa, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, 2016, https://institute.global/insight/governance/jobs-gap-making-inclusive-growth-work-africa. With few exceptions, countries that have moved toward middle-income status have been initially driven along that path of economic growth by the transformation of their agriculture sector. Countries’ political settlements can be categorised according to whether the head of state has strong or weak powers, based on four factors: These elements combine to create four scenarios (see table 2). In India, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s attitudinal shift towards the private sector in the 1980s “left little paper trail in actual policies but had an important impact on investors’ psychology”, in the words of economists Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian, such that India’s economic transformation started in the 1990s.17Dani Rodrik and Arvind Subramanian, “From ‘Hindu Growth’ to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition”, National Bureau of Economic Research working paper 10376, March 2004, https://www.nber.org/papers/w10376.pdf. Building on this, the following two categories include factors that influence the potential speed, path, and sustainability of the transformation. Lutz Goedde, Avinash Goyal, Nitika Nathani, and Chandrika Rajagopalan, Successful agricultural transformations: Six core elements of planning and delivery. The benefit of setting a transformation agenda centred on specific value chains is that it allows the coordination of various enablers: inputs, land, research, extension, access to new technology, access to finance, access to markets, skills, standards, regulations, taxes, investment and markets.40Ibid. Nelson Kanneh, “Final review report of the Liberia Agricultural Sector Investment Plan 2010–2015”, 2017. The ATA also created ongoing capacity for performance tracking of the country’s agricultural strategy (indicator 11); improved the consultation process across government, donors, and the private sector (indicator 13); and increased the capacity of ministries to coordinate agricultural policies (indicator 14). Tom Lavers, “Land grab as a development strategy? The potential impact from unlocking agricultural transformation is large. Lant Pritchett, Kunal Sen and Eric Werker (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017). As such, it has been the subject of a great many studies. Once a few specific value chains are prioritised, the next step is to identify binding constraints to those value chains and then develop a politically smart approach—a strategy—that incorporates the private sector, civil society and development partners to address those constraints sequentially. Countries that have strong capacity at the centre of government to organise, coordinate and build political cohesion within the government, as in Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and Senegal, will find it easier to drive an agricultural transformation agenda. Another scenario is a weak dominant party, like Tanzania since 1992. One key aim of the programme was to set the basis for a movement that would encourage wide-scale support to agriculture and position it as the main economic diversification strategy for the country. The new generation of leaders on the continent recognises this and has undertaken efforts in recent years to try to revolutionise the sector. “Investment Portfolio”, Phatisa, accessed June 2018, https://www.phatisa.com/portfolio/aaf-portfolio/. Being able to put food on the table and providing for families is therefore crucial. Still the development community pays too little attention to helping most governments build capacity to implement reforms and transformative programmes. Countries like Rwanda and Senegal are also making progress by improving yields and diversifying their crops. This report has set out the basis for how such champions and leaders can emerge as part of the government system, be supported to build a political coalition that can drive the reforms and agenda into place, and communicate strategically. The endowment indicators found in this category also do not reflect the subnational geospatial differences in these metrics that are so critical for strategically accelerating and sustaining agricultural transformation. 1 (2012): 105–132. Africa’s agriculture revolution needs to happen fast. Securing the alignment and buy-in of the various agencies is essential and points to the importance of supporting leaders and champions to ensure their capacity to set a smart strategy and sell it to implementing agencies and ministries. Jean-Marie Byakweli and Fred Golooba-Mutebi, “Drivers of success for CAADP implementation: Rwanda case study”, report prepared for Firetail, 2013, https://www.firetail.co.uk. Third, this framework refers to the context of the political economy and of the prevailing institutional capacity in which a vision and strategy need to take hold. “Wienco”, Global Agriculture and Food Security Programme, accessed June 2018, http://www.gafspfund.org/content/wienco. The Agricultural Transformation Agenda was formally introduced in 2006 E.C. Millennium Challenge Corporation, accessed June 2018, www.mcc.gov. Ethiopia has relatively strong institutional capacity because of its dominant-party system and favourable economic structure, with elite alignment and commitment to agricultural and broader economic transformation. How can sufficient coordination and alignment take hold? The country began to experiment with setting up single project implementation units (SPIUs) in all line ministries and implementing agencies. The authors are grateful to all those who gave input and feedback on this report. “Art of Delivery”, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. This report contains an adapted extract of the contribution of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change to the Africa Agriculture Status Report 2018 of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA). In 2007 Morocco made a step change in its efforts to develop its agriculture sector.51Most of this information was sourced from an interview with a consultant who worked on the plan. The metrics measuring our readiness factors were selected with extensive expert consultations in combination with research into how these metrics changed during successful and unsuccessful periods of transformations in countries. “Green Morocco Plan Strategy (2016)”, Ministry of Agriculture and Maritime Fish, Kingdom of Morocco. Aspects of this complex transformation, which was not completed until the 19th century, included the reallocation of land ownership to make farms more compact and an increased investment in technical improvements, such as new machinery, better … This again underscores the need to embed agricultural transformation visions and strategies at the centre of government. strengthening the political and economic momentum for the vision through approaches such as those mentioned above; and. The equation that makes the gardener-tool relationship successful comprises four parts. Country governments vary in their ability to disperse the targeted budget. Iowa in the United States (US) records 11 tonnes per hectare.4“FAO Statistics”, FAO. Lant Pritchett and Eric Werker, “Developing the Guts of a GUT (Grand Unified Theory): Elite Commitment and Inclusive Growth”, Effective States and Inclusive Development Research Centre working paper 16/12, 7 December 2012, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2386617. Berhanu, “The political economy of agricultural extension in Ethiopia”. It is not just about agriculture and it is not just about agricultural production. “Art of Delivery” series, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, 2016, https://institute.global/insight/governance/collections/art-delivery. The mass of goals and rules creates a dynamic where everything should be a priority, which means nothing can be. Ethiopia is a striking success story. Lant Pritchett, Kunal Sen and Eric Werker (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2017). Mushtaq Khan, “Political Settlements and the Governance of Growth-Enhancing Institutions”, School for Oriental and African Studies draft paper in research paper series on growth-enhancing governance, 20 January 2011, http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/id/eprint/9968. Triggered by a decline in the commodity prices of Liberia’s main extractives around 2014, the Ebola crisis of 2014 and an increased recognition of the need to create value, jobs and livelihoods, the Liberia Agricultural Transformation Agenda in 2016 adopted an alternative implementation strategy based on prioritisation of crops, inclusivity of stakeholders and multi-level engagement. Properly understanding this is important because politicians lead governments. This was critical in undermining Tanzania’s agricultural transformation vision and implementation capacity.33Ibid. Government leaders also have to spend a lot of their time responding to the individual requests of tens if not hundreds of people, because otherwise they would struggle politically. Gardeners know where to go if they want to buy a tool they need, or if they want to learn about new tools. Geographically focused approaches (also known as economic corridors or clusters) have been successfully used in Asian, Latin American, and African countries to drive agricultural transformation and rural industrialization. Progress made so far needs to change into a revolution. The initiative petered out due to limited capacity, insufficient involvement and push from senior ministers, and constraints imposed by development partners. We strive to provide individuals with disabilities equal access to our website. 4 (2014). For example, in 2000, Ethiopia was already spending considerable sums on agricultural development and was committed to stable policies. Building a strong political, economic and social foundation provides the right support to countries for a strong agricultural vision to gradually emerge and take root. Funding from external sources was aligned with the government’s agenda. These include, for example, improving transportation infrastructure or raising literacy rates. Rather, vision refers to the mindset of a country’s elites. It included providing full-time technical support and coordination from within the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning and the cabinet’s adoption of a flexible and dynamic model. Here, the metrics indicate that Ethiopia likely has some long-term challenges to keep up the momentum of agricultural transformation. constraints to agricultural development and growth, design solutions that will help achieve sustained structural transformation and support the coordination and integration of agricultural development projects among various institutions. Bruno Versailles, “Rwanda: Establishing single project implementation units”, Overseas Development Institute, 2012. “FAO Statistics”, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), accessed June 2018, http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data. This is understandable: agricultural systems are complex, while governments often lack the capacity or support to intervene in the right way. This is a big statement that has significant implications for proponents of agricultural transformation. Elsewhere on the continent, there have been many efforts to promote inclusive and participatory approaches to defining development plans and strategies, with agriculture portrayed as a main ingredient. In 2010–2011, participants at Rwanda’s annual Development Partners’ Retreat decided to institute SPIUs again. Head of Inclusive Growth and Private-Sector Development Practice, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, Member of the Inclusive Growth Practice and Côte d’Ivoire Country Head, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. In summary, the 25 metrics we tracked for Ethiopia in the early stages of its transformation offer important insights about the country’s readiness—how the country changed political, institutional, and organizational aspects to create a good foundation for its policies and public investments. Factors like a government’s capacity to deliver and overall market conditions (which determine farmer and private-sector behaviour in the agriculture sector) also matter, but transforming the sector as whole ultimately depends on elite pressures, actions and wishes. Given the multi-agency and multi-sector nature of agricultural transformation, such a strategy should be developed as a central part of a country’s national development vision. This set the basis for the government to speak in unison about the importance of agriculture, sending a clear signal to the private sector about its intent to foster its emergence. 4 (2012): 363–374. In addition, senior leaders struggle to spend their time on what matters, limiting their ability to become champions of agricultural transformation. Our hope is that the insights provided in this article will broaden the discussion of how to accelerate agricultural transformation to include critical issues beyond good policies and investments. There are many cases in history—most notably Asia’s Green Revolution—when dramatic technological gains have been essential to overcoming institutional and political bottlenecks, both by stimulating weak input, processing and marketing delivery and by making it pay farmers to overcome strong barriers to collective or private action to raise output. It should therefore come as no surprise that there is little to show for the plan on the ground. The continent’s leaders have set targets through the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) and the Malabo Declaration, which require the agricultural transformation of their countries.3The CAADP and Malabo Declaration set targets for each African country to allocate 10 per cent of public expenditure to agriculture, end hunger by 2025 and halve poverty by 2025 through, in part, average annual growth in agricultural productivity of 6 per cent. Leaders should then adjust agricultural transformation efforts to be a supporting platform for these other inclusive economic sectors, for example by focusing on agriculture’s many links to manufacturing and tourism. If the centre of government prioritises neither agriculture nor another inclusive economic sector (like manufacturing or tourism), this does not mean that local and foreign proponents of agricultural transformation should abandon efforts to help governments secure that transformation. Such tasks vary over time. We'll email you when new articles are published on this topic. Steve Okpachu, Godwin Okpachu and Kate Obijesi, “The Impact of Education on Agricultural Productivity of Small Scale Rural Female Maize Farmers in Potiskum, Yobe State”, International Journal of Research in Agriculture and Food Sciences 2, no. In India, for example, McKinsey research suggests that addressing key agriculture sector constraints could create an increase in agricultural output of $175 billion and an 85 percent average increase in farmers’ incomes by 2025.2 2.Lutz Goedde, Avinash Goyal, Nitika Nathani, and Chandrika Rajagopalan, Harvesting golden opportunities in Indian agriculture: From food security to farmers’ income security by 2025, McKinsey & Company, July 2017. This was driven by the financial crisis in Europe, which drove many Moroccans to return to Morocco, and by the king’s recognition of the need to change approach. Crucially, the government put its trust in this agency, which had enough political clout to drive the implementation of the Green Plan. 1 (2012): 105–132. 2 (2012): 12–23. This is because vision and strategy must be based on a country’s execution capacity. Akileswaran, Huss, Hymowitz and Said, The Jobs Gap. It had a clear mandate and supporting resources and senior political access, to support local and foreign investors, fix bottlenecks and ensure the development of outgrower schemes. Since the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front took power in 1991, Ethiopia has been notable for the unified, coordinated focus of its government. In addition to this are further challenges that come with being dependent on external financial support and make the political and capacity challenges even harder to address. This contrasts sharply with Liberia Rising 2030, which civil servants rarely refer to, or the Liberia Agricultural Sector Investment Plan (LASIP), developed as part of the CAADP commitment in 2010 and then rapidly forgotten. The reality is frequently that their few best people—and even they themselves—get stuck doing basic administrative work that needs to be done but should not be taking up their time at the higher echelons. Agriculture has been transformed. Such visionary stakeholders should start from a position that acknowledges four principles: It is only by viewing agricultural transformation in this way that a country’s leadership can make a strong enough commitment to the CAADP and Malabo Declaration targets, and devote sufficient time and attention to drive agricultural transformation. Ethiopia’s path through the first stages of a national agricultural transformation is a sub-Saharan African success story. The country’s economic growth therefore partly by the developing world's. supporting the establishment of strong linkages and coordination among agricultural stakeholders and related institutions and projects to ensure effective agricultural development activities. Rather, they are either provided by the private sector or enabled by other government ministries and agencies. Countries such as Ethiopia and Morocco have got it right by setting up agencies with sufficient political authority to coordinate the development of agriculture and address the bottlenecks to transformation. This determines the political space the leadership has—whether those leaders are fans of agricultural transformation or not. The African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET) defines agricultural transformation as a process that leads to higher productivity on farms, commercially orients farming, and strengthens the link between farming and other sectors of the economy. For one, the critical importance of the ATA stands out as shifting foundational components. The strategy should be owned by the implementing agencies it requires. A number of countries across Africa have developed, or tried to develop, implementation mechanisms for governments to drive their agricultural transformation agenda. Agricultural Commercialization Clusters. Agriculture in Nigeria is a branch of the economy in Nigeria, providing employment for about 35% of the population as of 2020. Particularly in competitive clientelist political settlements, but also in dominant-party systems that depend likewise on patrimonialism, the way that politicians—the people who ultimately have to lead an agricultural transformation agenda—secure their political survival is by appeasing their clients and patrons. These projects should meet the criteria set out above for a strong agricultural transformation strategy, as well as being tangible, feasible and concrete solutions to the main binding constraints holding back the value chains with the greatest potential. To understand what makes a country ready to implement a good agricultural transformation plan, McKinsey mapped dozens of historical cases of agricultural transformations (both successes and failures), synthesized a broad range of expert opinions, and evaluated hundreds of possible metrics. One scenario is a development coalition. Each country is different and faces a unique set of political, social, cultural, economic, human and institutional capacity factors. Yet one of the biggest challenges that champions and leaders of agricultural transformation in governments face is accessing data and analysis when they need it. The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change supports political leaders and governments to build open, inclusive and prosperous societies in a globalised world. Hence, each of the factors that follow on from vision—such as developing a strategy and attempting to implement it—also plays a big role in either reinforcing or undermining that vision. And they often have to compete with relatively stronger vested interests when economic power is concentrated with a handful of power brokers and rentiers. As reported by the FAO, agriculture remains the foundation of the Nigerian economy, despite the presence of oil in the country. As noted in the introduction, these endowment indicators are only a representative selection of possible factors, with many issues necessarily omitted. Recognising that understanding context is complex, three factors are the most important in setting a country’s context: the type of political settlement and patronage networks; the current economic structure and the scale of the value-adding private sector; and the levels of institutional and human capacity. Few countries have industrialized without first modernizing their agriculture sector. Consultation does not address the shop and the shed—learning and access—particularly if the capacity of internal statistics functions is weak. It is essential to reinforce and back the government’s economic transformation vision, even if it is not based on agriculture—and progress towards achieving the CAADP and Malabo Declaration goals should be adjusted accordingly. The scale of the needs in the agriculture sector in absolute terms is daunting enough, even before one sets these needs against the financial and human resources that champions and potential champions of agricultural transformation have available to tackle them. This limits the ability of champions and potential champions of agricultural transformation to mobilise the resources they need to drive their strategy into place. fully appreciate the potential of a country’s agriculture sector; recognise that they have the capability and responsibility to guide the country towards that potential; focus on a long-term outlook necessary to achieve that potential despite efforts at self-preservation and political success; and. Check your inbox shortly for more from us. The first is that leaders in government need to be better supported so they can navigate the complexity of reforms. This is essentially the case in many countries in Africa, such as Angola, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Kassahun Berhanu, “The political economy of agricultural extension in Ethiopia: Economic growth and political control”, Futures Agriculture Consortium working paper 42, 2012, www.future-agricultures.org. The important question is to what extent the data and analysis are based on what champions and leaders need, rather than on what data producers want to produce, for example to try to convince a government to do something they think it should. Agricultural Transformation Xinshen Diao, Jed Silver and Hiroyuki Takeshima (International Food Policy Research Institute) February 2016 Background Paper for African Transformation Report 2016: Transforming Africa’s Agriculture Joint research between African Center for Economic Transformation (ACET) and With few exceptions, as countries move along an economic-development path, their agriculture sector modernizes, becoming more efficient and less labor intensive. AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION and RURAL DEVELOPMENT . As background, Exhibit 2 shows a timeline of major events in Ethiopia’s transformation pathway since the early 1990s. Helping to strengthen these functions is essential. Tanzania chose to focus on agricultural corridors, starting with the Southern Agricultural Corridor of Tanzania, led by a central office with a multi-stakeholder board of directors and a full-time staff headed by a chief executive officer.21“Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania”, SAGCOT, accessed June 2018, http://sagcot.co.tz/index.php/the-team/. Finally, there is competitive clientelism. Yet the main message is that government champions and leaders need to emerge out of positions that are part of the government system. While we can reasonably measure changes in policies and the allocation of government expenditures, readiness also depends on hard-to-measure shifts in political commitment and institutional innovation. Such leadership, combined with an openness to international support, is crucial not only for Africa’s agricultural transformation but also for broader economic reforms to allow the continent’s citizens to reap the rewards of globalisation. For example, a focus on rice and cassava development allowed Nigeria to set up the Nigeria Incentive-Based Risk-Sharing for Agriculture Lending scheme and an electronic voucher system for farm inputs, focused on these value chains.41“Nigerian Incentive Based Risk Scheme for Agricultural Lending”, NIRSAL, accessed June 2018 https://www.nirsal.com/. Nearly all donors embraced the programme, including re-aligning funds to support it. Fifth, recognising that the capacity of the underlying bureaucracy was still relatively weak—for example when compared with Tunisia’s—the government saw the need for a big push from the top. It is important to assess these assumptions and, in countries where this commitment is unclear, to adjust the approach in several ways. The aim is to manage the main political stakeholders and core implementing agencies of the agricultural transformation agenda. 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